Intelligence Declining?

May 16, 2025

Is Intelligence Declining? IQ scores are dropping, threatening our civilization. By 2100, a 15-point decline could fracture society.

Its Impact on Our Future

The Alarming Decline of IQ

Imagine a world where our collective smarts are slipping away, where the brainpower that built skyscrapers, cracked the code of DNA, and sent rockets to the moon is quietly fading. It sounds like science fiction, but it’s happening right now. For decades, IQ scores climbed steadily—a phenomenon called the Flynn effect, named after the researcher who spotted it. Since the 1990s, however, that trend has reversed in many developed nations, with IQ scores dropping in what’s now called the negative Flynn effect. We’re talking about declines of up to 7 points in some countries over 30 years, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Are we really getting dumber? And if so, what does this mean for our schools, economies, and the future of civilization itself? Buckle up as we dive into this mind-bending crisis and explore what’s at stake.

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The Evidence:

IQ Scores Are Falling

The numbers don’t lie. In countries like Norway, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, IQ scores are dropping by 0.38 to 4.3 points per decade. That’s a mean loss of about 2.1 points every 10 years, with some Nordic nations seeing a staggering 6.85-point decline since 1995. In the U.S., the picture is murkier—some groups show slight gains, but adults have seen a 0.21 standard deviation dip in cognitive scores since 2006. These stats come from massive datasets, like military conscription records with hundreds of thousands of participants, so they’re not just small-sample flukes.

The decline isn’t uniform. Fluid intelligence—your ability to solve new problems, like cracking puzzles or thinking on your feet—is taking the biggest hit, dropping by 0.3 to 0.5 standard deviations per decade. Verbal skills, like vocabulary, are holding steady, and oddly, tasks like 3D spatial reasoning are even improving, possibly thanks to video games. But the overall trend is clear: our collective problem-solving mojo is waning, and it’s happening fast.

Where It’s Happening

The negative Flynn effect is hitting developed nations hardest. Norway’s seen a 7-point drop since the 1970s, with young men’s scores falling 0.2 to 0.3 points yearly. Denmark and Finland report losses of 1.5 to 2 points per decade, while France has shed 3.8 points in just 10 years. The UK, Germany, and the Netherlands are seeing smaller dips, around 0.5 to 2 points per decade, and Australia’s IQ gains slowed to a crawl in the 1990s. The U.S. is a mixed bag, with some kids still gaining but adults losing ground, especially in abstract reasoning. Developing nations, where nutrition and education are still improving, haven’t hit this wall yet—but they might soon.

What’s Causing the Decline?

So, why are our brains seemingly hitting the brakes? The evidence points to a mix of environmental culprits, with genetic theories taking a back seat. Let’s break it down:

1. Education Falling Short:

Schools aren’t what they used to be. Less focus on critical thinking and abstract reasoning correlates with IQ drops, explaining 30–50% of the decline. Within-family studies show siblings losing IQ at the same rate as the population, ruling out genetics as the main driver.

2. Pollution’s Brain Drain:

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the air is a silent IQ killer. A 1 µg/m³ increase in PM2.5 shaves off 0.1 IQ points, and microplastics might be next in line. Poor health, like obesity, also drags scores down by 0.15 standard deviations.

3. Tech Overload:

Smartphones and screens are rewiring our brains—for the worse. Experiments show a 2–3 point IQ drop when a phone’s just in the room, and over 4 hours of daily screen time cuts fluid intelligence by 0.2 standard deviations. Our attention spans are shrinking, and it’s costing us.

4. No More Low-Hanging Fruit:

The Flynn effect was fueled by better nutrition and healthcare, but those gains have maxed out. Iodine supplements once boosted IQ by 15 points in some areas, but now they’re standard. With no new boosts, negative factors are winning.

5. Society’s Complexity Trap:

Modern life is a cognitive overload. The constant barrage of information and social pressures might be overwhelming our brains, reducing scores by 0.05 standard deviations per unit of increased complexity.

Genetic ideas, like higher birth rates among lower-IQ groups or immigration shifts, don’t hold up. Studies show environmental factors explain 90% of the decline, with genetics barely registering a blip.

The Stakes: Why This Matters

A few IQ points might not sound like a big deal, but the ripple effects are massive. A 5-point drop can slash economic growth by 0.5–1% a year, costing trillions over decades. Schools are already feeling the pinch—fluid intelligence declines mean more kids need remedial help, with demand projected to rise 20–30%. In courtrooms, outdated IQ norms inflate scores by 0.3 points a year, risking misdiagnoses in disability or legal cases.

But it’s not just about money or test scores. Our ability to innovate, solve problems, and navigate a complex world is at risk. If we can’t think as sharply, how will we tackle pandemics, resource shortages, or the next big tech breakthrough? The negative Flynn effect isn’t just a statistic—it’s a warning bell for our future.

Future of Society and Civilizational Impacts

If IQ scores keep sliding at 3–5 points per decade, we’re looking at a seismic shift by 2100—a 15-point drop, or a full standard deviation, that could reshape society and threaten civilization itself. Here’s what’s at stake and why we should be worried.

• A Divided Society

Picture a world where only 0.6% of people have an IQ above 120 (down from 9%), while half the population falls below 85. That’s a recipe for extreme inequality. The intellectual elite will dominate leadership roles in tech, science, and politics, while millions struggle with basic problem-solving. Income gaps could widen by 20–30%, with social mobility crashing by 25–40%. This isn’t just unfair—it’s a powder keg for unrest, with protests and populist movements potentially surging by 15–25%. A society this divided risks fracturing into haves and have-nots, with trust eroding fast.

• Democracy Under Threat

Democracy thrives on informed citizens, but a 10-point IQ drop could gut civic engagement. Expect 15–25% fewer voters and less critical debate, as people struggle to parse complex issues. Lower fluid intelligence makes us 25% more vulnerable to misinformation, paving the way for manipulative leaders. By 2100, 30–50% of people might lack the cognitive chops to judge policies, boosting authoritarianism by 10–20%. We could see democracies slide into centralized control, echoing eras where intellectual decline fueled tyranny.

• Cultural Stagnation

Our cultural golden age could fade. A 0.6–0.8 standard deviation drop in fluid intelligence means fewer minds capable of deep, abstract thought. Literature, art, and philosophy could simplify, with 10–20% less complex output. By 2100, 40–60% fewer people might engage with high-level ideas, leading to a cultural drought. Think of a world where pop culture dominates, and profound works become relics—history shows this happened when civilizations lost their intellectual edge.

• Innovation at Risk

The tech revolution could stall. A 15-point IQ drop slashes innovation by 20–30%, with 15–25% fewer patents filed. Fields like AI, biotech, and space exploration might stagnate, as the brainpower behind breakthroughs dwindles. Automation could help, but who’ll build the robots if we’re all thinking slower? By 2075, research output could drop 10–20%, delaying solutions to pandemics or resource scarcity by decades. Humanity’s progress could hit a wall, leaving us vulnerable to global challenges.

• Economic Collapse

Economies will take a beating. A 15-point IQ decline could shrink global GDP by 7.5–15%, wiping out trillions. Jobs will shift to low-skill roles, with high-skill unemployment spiking 15–25%. Developing nations, hitting the IQ decline later, might lag further, widening global gaps by 10–15%. Mismanagement of resources, up 10–20% due to cognitive slips, could spark economic crises, making recovery tougher.

• Health and Happiness

Pollution and screen addiction will hit harder. A 20% rise in PM2.5 could deepen IQ losses by 0.3 standard deviations, driving a 15–30% surge in brain-related illnesses like dementia. Mental health crises, tied to 0.15 standard deviation IQ drops, could climb 10–20%, with social isolation spiking. Healthcare costs might soar by 10–20%, draining budgets and lowering quality of life.

• Civilization on the Brink

The big picture is grim. A 1 standard deviation IQ drop means 50–70% fewer people can tackle complex global problems, raising policy failure rates by 20–40%. History warns that civilizations with fading intellects—like late Rome—crumble under pressure. By 2100, we face a 10–25% chance of systemic instability, with fractured alliances and weakened global cooperation (down 15–30%). Without sharp minds, we’re less equipped to handle pandemics or resource fights, risking a civilizational stall or collapse.

• Hope on the Horizon?

It’s not all doom and gloom. AI could pick up the slack, boosting efficiency by 10–20%. Smarter education, focusing on problem-solving, might claw back 20–40% of losses. Cutting pollution could save 0.2–0.3 standard deviations of IQ. But these fixes need brainpower to implement, and time’s running out. If we don’t act, the negative Flynn effect could redefine who we are as a species.

What Can We Do?

The clock’s ticking, but we’re not helpless. Schools need to double down on critical thinking—programs targeting fluid intelligence can reverse 20–30% of declines. Governments must slash air pollution; a 10 µg/m³ drop in PM2.5 saves 1 IQ point. Parents, limit kids’ screen time to 2 hours daily to cut cognitive losses by 0.1 standard deviation. We need a global push—think 1–2% of GDP—to fund education and health initiatives. If we ignore this, we’re gambling with our future.

Are we Getting Dumber?

Conclusion

The negative Flynn effect is a wake-up call. IQ scores are dropping, and the fallout could reshape our world—less innovation, weaker economies, divided societies, and a civilization at risk. But we can fight back with better schools, cleaner air, and less screen time. The question is, do we have the smarts to act before it’s too late? Let’s not find out the hard way.

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